Tag: markets

India ideas (Mar 29, 2021)

investingclass

The market seemed ready to rollover just before the budget on Feb 1. But as the budget was being announced, there was a huge rally that spread across almost all sectors. #Nifty was up +4.7% and 2.6% on Feb 1 and Feb 2 respectively and made a recent high on Feb 16. Since then, it has been struggling to move back up and looks ready to roll over again.

Chart sourced from investing.com

Portfolio Allocation: Looking at the setups of some current leaders, I have a few test trades with small allocation right now. These will guide me whether to increase my exposure over the coming days and weeks.

Here is what I am seeing currently on the sector level:
– Secular trends (leadership in 3m+ period) continue to persist in Software and Trading companies (eg, Indiamart). Most of the stocks in these sectors have been rangebound/declining for the past 3 months or so. Whether it is a time correction or a sign of an impending downtrend in overall market, time will tell.
– New leaders have started emerging in Retail (eg. Vmart), Professional Services (eg. Quess, Teamlease etc.) and lot of re-opening related plays.
– Financials drove the whole market up since November last year and are taking a breather right now.
– Chemicals participated on the upside post Covid upto September/October and then lost leadership for 5-6months. They have started moving again in the last one month or so. So that’s another area to keep an eye on for the next run up.
– Metals is another area which is grabbing global attention. Stocks (Hindustan Copper, Vedanta, Tata Steel etc) have a nice tailwind with the global inflation narrative. Some allocation in this sector with right risk reward would be advisable.
– Cement companies seem to have a consistent bid as well. With re-opening, this sector is expected to contribute to growth in this fiscal.

Few names that look interesting right now for Long exposure – in no particular order of preference:

Disclosure: I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, please do your research before committing capital.

India daily update (Sep 28, 2020)

investingclass

Fair to say that the market seemed to be in a rush today (Nifty +1.6%). Sector split below:

Don’t forget that this is only the 2nd day of rally post the sell off that started last week. Volume on both up days was < volume on down days as shown below. 11302 is a key level to watch, it will guide us whether putting risk back on is appropriate.

Few stocks that seemed interesting today:

Granules: strong price action following the gap up day on Friday. Can potentially use SL @ 380-382.

Vaibhav Global: It’s potentially setting up to breakout higher. Can use SL @ 1800-1780 range. It’s a low liquidity stock, hence more appropriate for retail size.

Garware Technical Fibres: Broke out today from previous highs on strong volume. Can use SL @ 2015.

Tasty Bite Eatables: It got quite beaten down in the sell off and moved below 200 DMA. Today it managed to stay above 200 DMA for 2nd consecutive day which indicates that the downtrend is probably over in this name for the medium term. (SL @ 10510)

Be careful with adding new positions at this time. If you feel you are forcing trades at this time, it is better to sit it out. Highly likely that the trades taken in this environment will be shaken out.

All the best!

Charts sourced from investing.com

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, please do your research before committing capital. Stop loss levels mentioned are indicative for the risk I would be willing to commit on these trades with my trading style. Everyone’s different, commit what you can stomach losing.

US – Opportunities For The Coming Week (Sep 28, 2020)

investingclass

If one were to look at the WoW performance for major indices, it would be hard to imagine the volatility most investors went through last week.

  • #SPX: +0.53%
  • #NDX: +1.25%
  • #RUT: -0.76%

My model shows massive deterioration in the setups for uptrending stocks. While we wait for the bull market to resume (SPX above 50dma, NDX above 50dma), here are few stocks that one can focus on once the index uptrend is re-established:

$ZM: Zoom needs no introduction. Here is how the chart is setting up. On the fundamental side, it’s really good to see the revenues going 2x in last 12 months and free cash flow 6x.

$CRWD: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-delivered solutions for next-generation endpoint protection in the United States, Australia, Germany, India, Romania, and the United Kingdom. It offers 11 cloud modules on its Falcon platform through a software as a service subscription-based model that covers various security markets, such as endpoint security, security and IT operations, and threat intelligence to deliver comprehensive breach protection even against today’s most sophisticated attacks. The company primarily sells its platform and cloud modules through its direct sales team. (Source: yahoo)

$NOW: ServiceNow, Inc. provides enterprise cloud computing solutions that defines, structures, consolidates, manages, and automates services for enterprises worldwide. The company offers information technology (IT) service management applications; and digital workflow products for customer service, human resources, security operations, integrated risk management, and other enterprise departments. It operates the Now platform that offers workflow automation, electronic service catalogs and portals, configuration management systems, data benchmarking, performance analytics, encryption, and collaboration and development tools. (Source: yahoo)

$NVDA: Nvidia is the leading designer of graphics processing units that enhance the experience on computing platforms. The firm’s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming, data centers, and automotive infotainment systems. In recent years, the firm has broadened its focus from traditional PC graphics applications such as gaming to more complex and favorable opportunities, including artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, which leverage the high-performance capabilities of the firm’s graphics processing units. (Source: Morningstar)

$ENPH: Enphase Energy Inc delivers energy management technology for the solar industry. The company designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions that connect solar generation, energy storage, and management on one intelligent platform. Its product and service portfolio consists of Enphase Microinverters, Enphase Envoy, Enphase Enlighten and Apps, Enphase Energy Services, and Enphase Storage System. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States. (Source: Morningstar)

Fundamentals look good here. It looks choppy but certainly one to keep an eye on.

$PTON: Peloton Interactive, Inc. provides interactive fitness products in North America and internationally. It offers connected fitness products, such as the Peloton Bike and the Peloton Tread, which include touchscreen that streams live and on-demand classes. The company also provides connected fitness subscriptions for multiple household users, and access to all live and on-demand classes, as well as Peloton Digital app for connected fitness subscribers to provide access to its classes. (Source: Yahoo)

Charts sourced from stockcharts.com and financials from morningstar.com

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, please do your research before committing capital.