India weekly updates: Sep 26, 2020

#India #weeklyinsights: It was a tough week with #Nifty50 -3.95% and #NSESmallcap250 -5.39% WoW. The strong move down flushed out a lot of excess during the week.

Sector performance:
#Pharma -5.88%
#IT -1%
#Chemicals -4.5%
#Auto -6%
#Banks -4.76%
#Media -4.76%

Friday had an upward push with Nifty and Smallcap index up +2.26% and 2.57% respectively. While it is possible that this is just a correction, I am worried because of few reasons:
– ferocity of the down move
– Friday’s volume < volume on sell-off days
– emergence of bearish H&S pattern on daily chart (shown in pic)

As of now, I have a bearish outlook but might change if the index comes up above 50DMA and stays above.

Key levels to watch on Nifty:
50DMA: 11299
200DMA: 10758, time to get more active on short side

Catalysts in next Q which can tilt the mkts downwards:
– Earnings
– US elections

Nifty 50: Head and Shoulder formation

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